The mood and the price trends for hot rolled coil (HRC) in most regions globally have been demonstrating a certain pessimism once again this week since, after some recovery in China’s offers last week, a negative mood has returned to China’s market following another drop in HRC futures prices. Meanwhile, in Europe, while most HRC customers are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Easter holiday in the region, European mills, especially in the north, have still been trying to attract buyers, decreasing their coil offers for May delivery. In Turkey, HRC producers have remained under pressure considering low domestic demand before the local elections on Sunday.
While the general range of ex-China boron-added SS400 HRC prices from mills has been assessed at around $530-560/mt FOB, against $535-550/mt FOB last week, the tradable level for HRC has lost at least $10/mt since the end of last week in new offers from Chinese traders globally amid worse sentiments appearing in the HRC futures market. More specifically, the tradable price level for ex-China SS400 HRC has been estimated at $510-535/mt FOB, down by $10/mt since Friday, March 22, but still $2.5/mt higher compared to offers heard at the beginning of last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to offers and deal prices at $520/mt CFR in Vietnam, versus $530-535/mt CFR at the end of last week. Besides, offers for ex-China SS400 HRC in Pakistan have been voiced at $540/mt CFR, down by $5/mt week on week, while offers for Q195 HRC have settled at $530/mt CFR, compared to $535/mt CFR reported last week. The higher end of the range corresponds to offers in higher-price destinations, including the Middle East and Turkey. In particular, ex-China Q195/SS400 HRC offers to the UAE have been estimated at $565-570/mt CFR from mills, mainly the same as last week, but, according to sources, a few offers from non-VAT traders have been heard at $550-560/mt CFR for May shipment. Furthermore, following numerous deals done in Turkey last week, most ex-China offers have settled at $560-565/mt CFR, the same as at the end of last week, with a few deals reported at $555-560/mt CFR this week.
The general range for ex-India HRC offer prices has moved to $560-595/mt FOB, against $570-595/mt FOB last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to offers for ex-India HRC in non-traditional markets, like Nepal and Bangladesh, at around $580-585/mt CFR, with the freight rate estimated at $15-20/mt. At the same time, talk about a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed at $572/mt CFR Vietnam has been circulating in the market, though this information has not been officially confirmed by the time of publication. Meanwhile, offers for ex-India HRC in the Middle East have been estimated at $600-610/mt CFR for May shipment, against $600-620/mt CFR last week, with bids from most buyers heard at below $600/mt CFR. Furthermore, offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have been heard at $640-645/mt CFR, which translates to around $590-595/mt FOB, mainly the same as last week.
This week has brought a negative mood once again to Vietnam’s HRC import market as Chinese suppliers have failed to increase their offers. More specifically, while most offers for ex-China Q235/SS400 HRC have settled at $520/mt CFR, versus $530-535/mt CFR at the end of last week, according to sources, following several deals for around 3,000-5,000 mt signed at $523-525/mt CFR at the beginning of this week, by the middle of the week the material changed hands at $518-520/mt CFR for May shipment. Besides, offers for Q195 HRC have been estimated at $515/mt CFR, down by $10/mt since the end of last week. At the same time, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $555/mt CFR, against $560-565/mt CFR at the end of last week, based on ex-China indicative prices, though this level has not been fixed in new deals so far due to slow trade activity and downward expectations among Vietnamese buyers.
Turkish HRC buyers have continued to show interest in Chinese material since it is the cheapest option, particularly on the import side. This week, according to sources, two more deals for 20,000 mt each have been closed within around $560-565/m CFR base from China, in addition to at least 90,000 mt booked last week. As a result, suppliers have managed to increase deal prices from the earlier $553-558/mt CFR levels, but have still failed to achieve their targeted prices of $570-575/mt CFR. Aside from China, Egypt has been offering at $635-640/mt CFR for HRC for May shipments, and small discounts are considered possible. In the meantime, domestic HRC prices in Turkey have slid from $640-665/mt ex-works to $630-645/mt ex-works in offers, and many consider $620/mt ex-works is possible for decent order sizes. As for exports, European destinations have been quiet partly due to the upcoming holiday, but also due to some downturn in prices seen once again over the past week. The official offers of Turkish mills are at $620-630/mt FOB, versus rare bids at $580-585/mt FOB.
In UAE, the lack of activity in the import trade segment has persisted since local market demand is still weak and Emirati purchasers anticipate more reductions in import offers. While Indian suppliers have reduced their HRC offer prices, Chinese and Japanese suppliers have chosen to maintain prices unchanged from last week. Consequently, ex-China SS400 HRC offers for May shipping this week have stayed at around $550-570/mt CFR. Likewise, ex-Japan offers have remained stable at $620/mt CFR. Ex-India SAE1006 HRC offers, on the other hand, have fallen by $10/mt over the past week to $600-610/mt CFR for shipments in late April and May. Additionally, South Korean suppliers have chosen to begin offering to the UAE this week, although Emirati customers find it difficult to meet their higher price expectations in the present circumstances. Ex-South Korea offers have been received at $640/mt CFR for May shipment.
In Europe, most HRC customers are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Easter holiday in the region, while some mills, especially in the north, have still been trying to attract buyers, decreasing their coil offers for May delivery. More specifically, HRC offers from European mills, mainly for May delivery, have been evaluated at €650-670/mt ex-works in Italy and at around €700/mt ex-works in northern Europe. This means prices have remained relatively stable as compared to last week, though, according to sources, some mills in the north have been ready to provide €20/mt discounts. Meanwhile, tradable prices have been estimated at €640-650/mt ex-works Italy, while workable prices in the north have been voiced at €660-680/mt ex-works, versus €670-690/mt ex-works last week. As for import prices, offers to southern Europe have settled at around €565-610/mt CFR, down by €15/mt on the lower end of the range over the past week. According to sources, although general business activity has remained slack this week, talk has been circulating in the market this week about several deals for around 60,000 mt in total of ex-Vietnam HRC signed with buyers from Europe and the UK at $565-570/mt FOB, or at around €565-575/mt CFR.