At the beginning of 2024, the global longs market has failed to witness a significant improvement in its supply-demand balance, particularly since the positive expectations after the Chinese New Year holiday have not materialized, according to the latest report issued by IREPAS, the global association for longs exporters and producers. As a result, Asian suppliers may become aggressive in their pricing and may again target distant markets, while demand for long steel is not foreseen to pick up significantly in the main consuming regions. However, some seasonality may support consumption, though market sources mainly hold positive hopes for the second half of the year. Competition is set to remain mainly local or regionalized, in particular given the situation in the Red Sea.
Many fear that ex-China exports may surge again since two major developers in China’s troubled real estate sector are facing deep financial issues. The market is worried about the rumors of some infrastructure projects being cancelled, which, coupled with the decline on the raw material side, could cause Chinese suppliers to increase their exports.
In the EU, domestic longs consumption has been on the low side, particularly since residential construction has declined in the northern part of the region. Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers have increased their presence in the European market overall, while currently most material of distant origins cannot compete with domestic prices in the EU or with the offers coming from Turkey and North Africa. The weak economy in the EU has reduced scrap flow, while longs supply in the region is also limited, in line with insufficient demand.
In the US, rebar prices are steady for now, but are under pressure from lower production costs, while imports are less and less competitive. The earlier optimism regarding possible cuts in interest rates has vanished, while construction overall has not picked up and improvements are now awaited in the summer.
Turkey continues to struggle to sell longs to many destinations, with only a few of them remaining solid buyers of Turkish rebar, such as Israel, Yemen and some European countries. Competition with Asia, North Africa and the GCC has limited the ex-Turkey trade, but recently the situation in the Red Sea has created a certain advantage for Turkish mills.