On the last working day of 2023, a new deal disclosed to the market indicated that the downward trend of Turkey’s import scrap prices will continue in January.
A Marmara-based Turkish producer has concluded an ex-Finland booking for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $410/mt CFR and bonus grade scrap at $430/mt CFR. The cargo will be shipped in early February. Accordingly, ex-Baltic benchmark scrap prices have decreased by $4/mt.
At the end of the current year, the mood in the market is mainly pessimistic, with Turkish mills signing rare deep sea scrap deals. Due to the high number of offers shared with Turkish mills, it is observed that they are still exerting downward pressure on quotations and successfully forcing sellers’ hands. The finished steel segment is not really providing support for a change on the scrap side. As Baltic scrap prices decline, they are expected to push down ex-Europe HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices also to around $405s/mt CFR. Also, ex-US scrap prices are expected to move down in the next deal, by around $4/mt. “This is the end of the year. Turkish mills have been silent for a long time. It is understandable that prices have moved down to such levels. However, the mood may change if more long steel producers start 2024 with new deals,” a source from the sellers’ side commented. Despite the stable trend of Turkish mills’ official domestic rebar prices, it is now heard that a major Marmara-based producer is offering a $20/mt discount for larger tonnages, providing an opportunity to some buyers to sign contracts at $600/mt ex-works. Although hot rolled coil prices remain stable at the end of the year, some traders are also offering discounts for actual sales. This may be a way to accelerate cash flow ahead of the New Year holiday, though concerns are voiced by market players. Turkey will be back from the holiday on January 2, and demand for finished steel is expected to play a big role in determining Turkish mills’ scrap purchase strategies.