According to the steel demand growth forecast of the World Steel Association, announced today, October 7, during the 47th annual meeting of the association held in Sao Paulo, apparent steel demand in the BRIC region, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, will grow by 5.6 percent in 2013 to 843 million metric tons, mainly due to faster growth expected in China, compared to 0.7 percent growth expected for the world excluding China. For 2014, apparent steel use in the BRIC region is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percent.
The locomotive of the BRIC region is China with its steel demand expected to reach 700 million metric tons this year, with a growth of six percent, reflecting the impact of the government's stimulus measures focused on infrastructure, said Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff, chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee. However, Chinese steel demand growth in 2014 is expected to slow to three percent as the Chinese government's efforts to rebalance the economy continue to restrain investment activities. In 2012, steel demand in China had increased by 2.9 percent.
In India, high inflation and structural problems are constraining activities in steel using sectors, said Mr. Kerkhoff, and steel demand in the country this year is expected to grow by 3.4 percent to 74 million metric tons, following 2.6 percent growth observed in 2012. In 2014, steel demand in the country is expected to grow by 5.6 percent helped by accelerated attempts to implement structural reforms.
In Russia, public non-residential construction and the introduction of automotive stimulus measures will contribute to steel demand growth of 3.8 percent to 43.6 million mt in 2013, thus providing support for apparent steel demand in the CIS region to grow by three percent to 58.9 million mt in 2013, despite contracting steel demand in Ukraine. Russia's steel demand is expected to grow further by 4.6 percent to 45.6 million mt in 2014, aided by the improving external environment, particularly in Europe.
In Brazil, the country hosting the worldsteel meeting, where the economic performance has to date been slower than expected, modest restocking coupled by improving capital investment is expected to result in apparent steel demand growth of 3.2 percent to 26 million mt in 2013 and a further growth of 3.8 percent to 27 million mt in 2014.