Speaking at the SteelOrbis 2016 Spring Conference & 74th IREPAS Meeting being held in Lisbon on April 10-12, Li Xinchuang, vice secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), said that from 1980 up to 2000, Chinese steel consumption rose slowly with some fluctuations. From 2001 up to 2014, Chinese steel consumption increased rapidly and hit a historical peak of 702 million mt in 2014, while its steel consumption decreased to 664 million mt in 2015, down 5.4 percent year on year - the first decrease since 1996. Based on analysis of downstream industries, it is predicted that Chinese steel consumption will total 595 million mt in 2020, 552 million mt in 2025 and 492 million mt in 2030.
According to Mr. Li, by 2020 steel demand from the construction industry is expected to fall to 320 million mt, with rebar consumption foreseen at about 150 million mt. He pointed out that, due to slow growth of real estate and infrastructure construction, Chinese rebar consumption in 2015 totaled 204.15 million mt, down 3.5 percent year on year, which was equal to 55.6 percent of the overall steel consumption of the Chinese construction industry.
The Chinese steel industry is facing overcapacity, which is causing serious financial losses in the overall industry. The most serious overcapacity is observed in the medium and heavy steel plate segment, which has a capacity utilization rate of less than 60 percent.
The CISA official predicted that Chinese steel exports will decline slightly due to antidumping and countervailing investigations launched by many foreign countries against Chinese steel products. It is foreseen that Chinese steel exports will drop to 80 million mt by 2020.