China's steel consumption has peaked and will see an inevitable decline in the future, as stated by He Wenbo, executive chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) at a conference held in Shanghai. He estimated that China’s finished steel consumption, crude steel consumption and crude steel output will reach 870 million mt, 910 million mt and 950 million mt in 2025, respectively.
By 2030, China’s crude steel consumption and crude steel output will likely decline by 50 million mt each, amounting to 860 million mt and 900 million mt, respectively. By 2035, China’s crude steel consumption and crude steel output will likely total 820 million mt and 850 million mt, respectively, while finished steel consumption will drop by 80 million mt over the next ten years to 790 million mt.
Meanwhile, Mr. He said China’s crude steel output and finished steel output in 2023 will likely indicate year-on-year rises based on current statistics. For instance, in the January-November period this year China’s crude steel and finished steel outputs amounted to 952 million mt and 1.253 billion mt, up 1.5 percent and 5.7 percent year on year, respectively.
Market experts forecast that China’s crude steel consumption in 2024 will likely see a slight year-on-year rise of 0.2 percent to reach 944.6 million mt. However, supply of crude steel will determine the profitability on the steelmakers’ side and will also determine the range of steel prices in 2024. Mr. He urged steelmakers in China to reduce the supply of steel to improve the steel industry’s profitability.