Yuan Wenjiong, chairman of Dao Fortune, has given his outlook for the Chinese steel market in 2025 at the Fastmarkets Middle East Iron & Steel Conference held in Dubai this week. Mr. Wenjiong said that China’s local steel demand has contracted this year, accompanied by a significant rise in steel exports, which has become the main factor impacting the global market recently, while most current tendencies are going to continue next year. However, the sudden change in government policy to cut debts is looking promising during such a challenging time, he noted.
Apparent demand for crude steel in China in the first ten months of 2024 declined by 3.4 percent, and, with the strong hike in exports by over 20 percent, the fall in domestic consumption may increase to 5.5 percent for the whole year, said Mr. Wenjiong. This has led to a decline in steel production in China in the first 10 months of the year by three percent year on year to 850.7 million mt. “The existing carbon emission target is not so great a restriction on steel production, so China’s steel output will remain high at about 900 million to 1 billion mt over the next few years,” the Dao Fortune chairman said.
The main impact on Chinese steel demand has come from the real estate industry. More people in China have been moving to the big cities, seeing houses as the best investments. But overall home sales have contracted due to weak confidence. Moreover, in the third-tier and fourth-tier cities, where the majority of construction usually takes place, there has been an even worse impact on demand. According to Mr. Wenjiong, demand from real estate will decline a little further, though maybe at a slower pace, while infrastructure growth may slow down and steel demand will be impacted with more new infrastructure projects using less steel. With steel demand in China having already peaked, it is expected that steel consumption will decline by 20-30 million mt per year (or by around 2-3 percent from the current levels). In 2023, apparent steel demand in China was 960 million mt, according to CISA, down around 20 million mt from 2022.
At the same time, since late September, the Chinese authorities have started to announce stimuli to support the economy with the most important measure being the raising of the debt ceiling significantly to replace the invisible debts of local governments. This may help China to reach its GDP growth target of around five percent next year. It is still unclear how big the impact of the recent measures will be on real steel demand, but at least it will help the market to halt its deterioration in 2025. However, Mr. Wenjiong noted, “The big uncertainty is coming from Trump. There are expectations for a 10 percent tariff on all imports and 60 percent on China. So, steel prices are close to the bottom, but only if there will be no such restrictions from Trump.”
As for the steel export dynamics, the chairman of Dao Fortune said that the demand for China’s materials overseas has peaked, but exporters will try to keep their sales at relatively high levels in 2025. The Middle Eastern market will remain very important for China. He pointed out that the share of sales to the Middle East out of China’s total steel exports is expected to reach 18.8 percent in 2024, up from 10-12 percent in 2017-2021.