According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2022-2023/Q4 2022 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), the positive trend seen in apparent steel consumption in the EU-27 throughout 2021 came to an end in the second quarter of 2022, due to the impact of ongoing disruptions linked to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the poor demand outlook and severe rises in energy prices and production costs. In the second quarter of 2022, apparent steel consumption in the EU-27 amounted to 38.6 million mt, decreasing by 4.8 percent compared to the same period of 2021, after an increase of 6.1 percent in the first quarter.
The issues mentioned are expected to weigh even more in the second half of 2022 up to the second quarter of 2023 inclusive, as a result of the prolonged effects of the war in Ukraine. Therefore, according to the association, steel consumption in the region is expected to decrease by 3.5 percent in 2022, compared to the previous forecast of 1.7 percent decrease, as a result of the quarterly drops forecast also for the third and fourth quarters this year. Steel consumption in 2023 is expected to decrease by 1.9 percent as demand from steel-using sectors is expected to remain severely subdued, at least until the second quarter of 2023. These developments are conditional on the evolution of energy prices, the war and its impact on global supply chains.
Despite the heavy disruptions and the weakened demand outlook caused by the war, the output of steel-using sectors in the second quarter increased by 5.7 percent year on year, after a 4.9 percent increase in the first quarter. EUROFER expects the output of steel-using sectors to increase by 1.9 percent in 2022, mainly thanks to very positive developments over the first two quarters.
Domestic deliveries in the EU decreased by 7.1 percent year on year in the second quarter, reflecting the weak demand within the EU over the given quarter.