In his presentation made today, March 23, at the SteelOrbis 2015 Spring Conference & 72nd IREPAS Meeting held in Paris, Franc Cardona, director of marketing, communication & public affairs at Spanish steel producer Celsa, stated that global construction is expected to rise by $6.3 trillion or by over 70 percent to $15 trillion by 2025 compared to $8.7 trillion in 2012. Mr. Cardona said that, in the EU, construction output increased by 1.3 percent in 2014 and construction activity is expected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2015 and by 2.3 percent in 2016.
According to the Celsa official, long steel product consumption worldwide has maintained its sustained growth, growing faster than global steel consumption, with 2.3 percent growth in 2014, and already at 145 percent of pre-crisis levels (2007-2008). On a regional level, the Asian markets account for about 70 percent of total global long product consumption, and China for more than 50 percent.
The estimated overall rebar consumption growth stands at 5.4 percent, with significant strength in North America and signs of recovery in the EU. Cardona said that Asian countries are driving global rebar consumption growth, with China accounting for more than 55 percent of total consumption. He added that having a reasonably balanced regional supply and demand should remain a priority for reinforcing bar producers.
Mr. Cardona indicated that the global growth trend in long steel product consumption is expected to be maintained in 2015-16, with robust perspectives for the US, apparent consolidation of recovery in the EU, with the help of a weaker euro and low oil prices, though the EU still shows a significant gap compared with the consumption levels in the pre-crisis years.
Among the key risks to consider, the Celsa official included the overcapacity in China in relation to China's growth deceleration, particularly in the construction sector - despite the fact that the Chinese authorities may be considering addressing the overcapacity issue due to environmental-economic reasons. Another risk is the impact of low oil and raw material prices for certain developing economies, he noted.