Global economic growth has been estimated at 3.2 percent in 2024 and is projected to be at 3.3 percent in 2025, in line with the expectations in the April 2024 report, according to the World Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As monetary policy normalization is complicated due to services inflation, upside risks to inflation have increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. The report stated that, to manage these risks and preserve growth, the policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability.
The IMF stated that growth among advanced economies is expected to converge over the coming quarters. For advanced economies, growth is projected to remain stable at 1.7 percent for 2024 and be at 1.8 percent for 2025. Meanwhile, for developing economies, growth is anticipated to decrease from 4.4 percent in 2023 to 4.3 percent in 2024 and 2025.
Regarding global inflation, the IMF noted in the report that it will continue to decline. In advanced economies, the pace of disinflation is forecast to slow in 2024 and 2025 as inflation in prices for services is now expected to be more persistent and commodity prices higher. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain higher in developing economies and to drop more slowly than in advanced economies.