At the 19th SteelOrbis Steel Conference “New Horizons in Steel Markets” held on Tuesday, December 3, in Istanbul, Kazuo Mike Fujisawa, principal of the global business development department at Japan’s JFE Steel Corporation, shared his expectations for global economic growth, the steel demand outlook for the coming year and discussed the current focus of the global market - the green transition -.
Starting his presentation with the global economic outlook, he stated that the global economy is weighed down by the increases in interest rates in response to inflation. Despite the impact of high interest rates and geopolitical tensions, the global economy continues to grow. However, he noted that the growth in the global economy will be 3.2 percent both in 2024 and 2025, significantly lower compared to the 6.6 percent recorded in 2021. Meanwhile, economists are cautiously optimistic about a potential recovery in 2025, with the easing of financing conditions, the release of pent-up demand, and increases in real income seen in major economies.
Looking at the demand side, global steel demand is forecast to decrease by 0.9 percent in 2024 and to recover by 1.2 percent in 2025, while the highest increase in steel demand for 2025 is expected for India with a 8.5 percent hike. Turkey is forecast to rank seventh in terms of steel demand among countries globally in 2025, with 35.5 million mt, while China will remain by far the largest steel using country in 2025, despite an expected decrease of about 150,000 mt, mainly due to its weak real estate sector, compared to the 2020 level. Regarding China, Mr. Fujisawa stated that the stimulus measures implemented by the government have been evaluated as being insufficient to boost the economy and steel demand. Apparent steel use in Japan is expected to decrease to 52.2 million mt in 2024 compared to 53.3 million mt in 2023 and to recover to 53.1 million mt in 2025.
As regards Japan, Fujisawa stated that the green transformation and achieving carbon neutrality are two of the main focuses of the country. He noted that Japanese companies are discussing strategies and working with steel trade associations against the backdrop of the EU’s CBAM, while there is no serious talk on implementing their own CBAM in Japan. He ended his words by stating, “Decarbonization is a long and bumpy journey”, and calling on the Japanese government, especially on behalf of private companies, such as JFE Steel, to support steel companies on their decarbonization journey.