During the panel session of the SteelOrbis Fall 2024 Conference & 91st IREPAS Meeting held in Paris on September 15-17, Wilhelm Alff from Duferco and chairman of the traders committee, shared with conference participants the conclusions reached by traders regarding the current situation in certain markets, especially China.
Looking at China, Mr. Alff stated that the country’s exports have been increasing constantly, with the country’s average monthly exports trending at 5.6 million mt in 2022, at 7.7 million mt in 2023 and expected to be around 8.7 million mt in 2024. Noting that China has been exporting semi-finished and finished steel products heavily at competitive prices, he stated that any surge in protectionist measures in reaction to this would just provide short-term relief, only changing product flow.
The traders committee chairman stated that, given the attractive prices of Chinese material, especially billet, Turkish mills are expected to continue to buy Chinese billet as an alternative to higher-priced scrap, putting pressure on scrap prices.
Regarding iron ore, Mr. Alff stated that rebar production in China has decreased amid destocking due to the switch to the new rebar standard, resulting in lower demand for iron ore. He said that iron ore stocks at Chinese ports currently stand at 149 million mt. Emphasizing the current spread between scrap and iron ore costs, Alff commented that everybody wants to be a blast furnace-based steel producer for the next six months.