The 19th SteelOrbis Steel Conference “New Horizons in Steel Markets”, held today, December 3, in Istanbul with more than 500 participants, opened with a welcome speech made by Uğur Dalbeler, general manager of Turkish steelmaker Çolakoğlu Metalurji, who said it is so hard to make predictions under the current conditions, so he shared the worldsteel figures instead. According to worldsteel, steel production in 2024 is expected to decline by 0.9 percent, while the 1.6 percent decline in the first 10 months of the year indicated that the situation has worsened beyond worldsteel’s expectations. For 2025, worldsteel’s estimations are on the positive side, with 1.2 percent growth in steel production foreseen, mostly boosted by India which aims to reach 300 million mt of steel production by 2030, while developing countries are expected to post a two percent increase in steel production.
Going forward, the Çolakoğlu representative said, China will play a crucial role as always. Meanwhile, he noted that both the US and the EU have taken some steps regarding interest rates, adding, “Things have heated up in Syria again and it remains to be seen how things will unravel in the Middle East and how the war in Ukraine will evolve with Trump coming to power again.” Mr. Dalbeler said that challenges will remain in the near future and the overcapacity of 400 million mt will continue putting pressure on the markets. He went on to say that he hopes China, which increased its steel exports to 10 million mt per month as it did back in 2015, will put on the brakes with the decisions to be made during the Communist Party meeting in February. He pointed out that it remains to be seen what Trump will do about protectionist measures, adding that, if there are any changes regarding the countries exempted from Section 232, it will be in favor of Turkey, though he said he doubted this would happen.
Regarding decarbonization, the hot topic in the industry, Mr. Dalbeler shared worldsteel’s estimations that carbon emissions are unlikely to decrease by 2030 as the steel industry continues growing. Dalbeler listed the main factors affecting decarbonization as production levels, production methods, raw materials, efficiency of blast furnaces, ratio of renewable energy in the grid, and the capturing and storing the carbon.
Dalbeler stated that decarbonization targets should be in line with the reality. He concluded his speech by stating, “There are serious barriers in terms of storing and distributing hydrogen and therefore it is hard for hydrogen to be the answer to decarbonization in the estimated time period. The McKinsey report says keeping global warming at 1.5 C by 2050 requires $78 trillion. We should focus on what we can do to improve current conditions. This can be done through increasing efficiency in steel production or processing. We should think about how we can use the current capacities more efficiently instead of creating new capacities. We should focus on reducing iron ore via natural gas instead of hydrogen. A cap might be introduced on the emissions created during steel production. Old technology steel mills might be decommissioned and capacities with new technology might be increased. The solution for decarbonization might be possible with global cooperation. We can never sustain global warming at 1.5 C through individual endeavors alone.”