Speaking on October 11 at the 46th annual meeting of the World Steel Association (worldsteel) held in New Delhi, Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff from the German Steel Federation (WV Stahl) announced that worldsteel has revised down its apparent steel usage forecast for this year by 1.5 percentage points compared to its forecasts back in April, stating that global apparent steel use will increase by 2.1 percent this year, which is considerably lower than the 6.2 percent growth achieved last year. In 2013, world steel demand growth will accelerate to 3.2 percent, reaching 1.455 billion mt, according to worldsteel forecasts.
Commenting on the downward revision, Mr. Kerkhoff, who is chairman of the worldsteel economics committee, said, "Earlier this year we were seeing some signs of recovery from the slowdown of the last quarter of 2011 and we expected a better second half performance in 2012. However, the economic situation deteriorated during the second quarter of this year, due to continued uncertainty arising from the debt crisis in the euro zone and a sharper than expected slowdown in China. These factors have a heavy impact on business confidence and manufacturing activities around the world. As a result, momentum in both the developed and emerging economies weakened considerably."
Besides, said Mr. Kerkhoff, the IMF has revised down its forecasts for global economic growth (GDP) for this year from 3.5 percent (forecast in July) to 3.3 percent, and to 3.6 percent for 2013 down from the 3.9 percent predicted in July. A slower global economic growth evidently means a slower growth in steel demand, he stated.
However, worldsteel expects the situation to gradually improve in 2013, as the euro zone crisis is expected to ease, and as the US successfully deals with the fiscal tightening due in 2013, besides which stimulus measures in China are likely to moderately improve the economic situation, though the impact of these measures is expected to remain far below the package launched in 2009.
"Since the 2008 economic crisis, uncertainty and volatility have become the norm for the steel industry, but it is worth noting that world steel demand has maintained positive growth despite all the headwinds and lingering difficulties," Mr. Kerkhoff concluded.