Looking back to the summer months, there is no question that the economy had hit some turbulence from which it is recovering only now. Unemployment remains a big problem even though October's job data were encouraging, showing that the private sector added 159,000 jobs in that month. Job growth for August and September were revised upward as well. The construction industry remains stuck in crisis mode despite an increase in recent home sales. Distressed sales accounted for 35 percent of October's home sales. Despite all the stimulus programs and printing of money by the Federal Reserve (they call it Quantitative Easing), the trickledown effect of these funds remain way behind expectations. Bank lending, in fact continues to contract although more slowly than at the beginning of the year. But data on factory orders, retail sales and car sales all point to a recovering economy at a somewhat faster pace in the months to come.
- GDP: Up 2.0 percent in Q3; this preliminary number is marginally higher than the 1.7 percent in Q2 but could be revised downwards later. Compared to last year, the growth was 3.1 percent.
- Consumer Prices: Up 1.1 percent in September (compared to a monthly decrease of 1.3 percent a year ago).
- Consumer Confidence: 50.2 October, up from 48.6 in September.
- Consumer Spending: Up 0.2 percent in September.
- Industrial Production: Down 0.2 percent in September from August, and up 5.4 percent for the past 12 months.
- Producer Prices: Up 4.0 percent in September compared to a year ago, representing the 11th straight year-on-year increase; up 0.4 percent month-on-month from August.
- Unemployment: 9.6 percent in October-unchanged from September.
- Trade Deficit: $44.0 billion in September, $632.1 billion for the past 12 months.
- Currency: 0.73 euro to one US dollar as of November 10 (0.67 a year ago).
- Housing: Housing starts in September increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units. This is 0.3 percent higher than the revised August rate and up 4.1 percent over last year. Housing permits increased 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539,000 units. This is 5.6 percent above August and 10.9 percent above last year. Existing home sales in September rose 10.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million units. This is 19.1 percent below September 2009. The national median existing-home price for all types was $171,700 in September or 2.4 percent under last year. Total housing inventory at the end of September had fallen 1.9 percent to 4.04 million units, representing a 10.7 month supply at the current sales rate.
- Automotive Industry: 706,825 units of light vehicles were produced in September or 8.0 percent more than last year. In the first nine months of the year, 5,807,691 units were produced or 49.0 percent more than last year. In September 950,165 units of light vehicles were sold. This is 13.4 percent over last year. Year-to-date 9,570,721 units were sold or 10.6 percent more than last year. For now, the US car industry is on course to reach or even exceed its proclaimed target of selling 12 million units.
- Steel Production: 6.645 million metric tons were produced in September or 15.0 percent more than last year and 15.3 percent less than 2008. Year-to-date 60.9 million metric tons were produced or 49.9 percent more than last year and 19.8 percent less than 2008.
- Purchasing Managers' Index: according to the Institute for Supply Management the PMI rose to 56.9 in October up from 54.4 in September. It is a "growing" trend for the fifteenth consecutive month and as of October was on a "faster" pace.
New Orders: 58.9 (51.1 Sept) - trend is "growing" for the 16th straight month
Production: 62.7 (56.5) - "growing" for the 17th consecutive month
Inventories: 53.9 (55.6) - "growing" for the 4th consecutive month
Customers' Inventories: 44.0 (42.5) - "too low"
Manufacturing Sector: "growing" for the 15th straight month
Overall Economy: "growing" for the 18th straight month