Cleveland Cliffs today has announced they’ll be raising the minimum US HRC base price to $57.50 cwt. ($1,268/mt or $1,150/nt), FOB mill. Prior to today’s announcement, US HRC prices were trending at $52-$54 cwt. ($1,146-$1,191/mt or $1,040-$1,080/nt), FOB mill, which was “within spitting distance” of the minimum $55 cwt. ($1,213/mt or $1,100/nt) HRC base price set by Nucor in their late-November increase announcement.
Sources have said they’re not immediately surprised by today’s announcement, as some had speculated mills would roll out another increase before the end of 2023.
What’s worth keeping an eye on, however, is where January scrap prices land once the market finally settles. Although as of end of business on Wednesday, January 3, mills have not yet announced January scrap prices, multiple sources have confirmed that at least one mill sent out a rash of cancellation notices for still-unfulfilled orders from December, including cancellations for prime grade scrap.
Some have speculated that this could be a sign that mills may try to hold scrap prices sideways during this month’s buy cycle. Flat rolled sources have said that if primes do land at sideways, they expect that mills will experience some resistance in trying to get HRC prices up to $57.50 cwt. ($1,268/mt or $1,150/nt).