Global hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have shown a decrease in almost all major markets this week, though most suppliers fell short in their efforts to heighten buyers’ interest. Suppliers from China have left the market for the holiday period, decreasing their offers to overseas buyers, affecting other Asian suppliers. In Europe, where mills have been trying to maintain their offers at high levels for a long time, this week local HRC prices have dropped significantly, also following a softening of import quotes, for ex-India and ex-Vietnam HRC especially. Turkish mills have stepped down a bit, but their HRC prices have not moved below the previous workable levels, partly since there has been little pressure on sales, even for April shipments.
Major Chinese mills' HRC export prices have remained stable ahead of the holiday at $580-600/mt FOB, mainly for April shipment. Meanwhile, traders' prices have dropped amid local and futures price declines, with the tradable level decreasing by around $12.5/mt to $550-565/mt FOB, as compared to traders’ offers last week. Customers from Pakistan have reported a few bookings for ex-China SS400 HRC at $564/mt CFR, against offers at $580/mt CFR last week. Besides, several bookings for ex-China Q195/Q235 HRC for around 4,000 mt in total have been reported at $554-556/mt CFR for March-April shipment, down by $7-9/mt week on week. Meanwhile, average HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have moved on a downtrend amid rising inventory levels and declining HRC futures prices. Domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 4,050-4,180/mt ($570-589/mt) ex-warehouse on February 8, down by RMB 45/mt ($6.3/mt) on average week on week, according to SteelOrbis’ data.
Ex-India HRC prices have continued to vary widely this week, standing at $585-670/mt FOB, though with deal prices remaining mainly stable globally. Offers in Asia have been estimated at the slower end of the range, while ex-India prices in the Middle East have remained at $610-620/mt FOB. In the meantime, some turbulence has started to appear in Europe with local prices there declining amid slow buying. Thus, although ex-India HRC offers have been officially voiced at around $670/mt FOB, by the end of the week buyers from Italy have started to report lower prices from India at around $640-650/mt FOB.
This week, a bearish mood has been prevailing in Vietnam’s HRC market ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday as Chinese traders have started to cut their offers given the sharp falls in futures prices. Offers for ex-China SS400 HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at around $565/mt CFR, down by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. However, several bookings for ex-China Q195/Q235 HRC have been reported at $554-556/mt CFR for March-April shipment, down by $7-9/mt week on week. Meanwhile, as of February 7, offers for ex-China Q235 HRC have been voiced at $555/mt CFR, versus $565/mt CFR last week. In the meantime, firm offers for SAE1006 HRC have been rare in Vietnam this week, with the indicative price for ex-China HRC standing at around $590-595/mt CFR, against $600/mt CFR last week, while indicative offers for ex-India SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $595-600/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $590-600/mt CFR, down by $5/mt week on week, mainly reflecting buyers’ price ideas given the absence of trade activity in Vietnam this week.
Signs of falling prices have emerged in the local HRC market in Europe given the low levels of restocking affected by slow demand, and the lack of buyer confidence in the sustainability of high offers from mills. More specifically, offers from European mills have settled at €740-780/mt ex-works, down by €10-20/mt over the past week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers from Italian mills at €740-765/mt ex-works, with the higher end corresponding to mills’ offers in the north at €745-780/mt ex-works, versus €760-800/mt last week. In the meantime, import HRC prices have been lacking clarity this week since, while several buyers in Spain have reported fresh deals for ex-India and ex-Vietnam HRC, 10,000 mt each, at €680/mt CFR through traders, offers for the same origin coils have been voiced in Italy at €650-660/mt CFR for ex-India HRC and at €640-650/mt CFR ex-Vietnam, down by around €20/mt week on week. Furthermore, offers for other Asian origin HRC, including those from Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, have been voiced at €650-660/mt CFR in Italy, down by €10/mt week on week, though several offers for ex-Taiwan HRC through traders are still voiced in Spain at €680/mt CFR, including 90-day delivery. Ex-Asia HRC offers directly from mills in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to northern Europe have been estimated at around €660-670/mt CFR Antwerp, down by €10/mt over the past week.
The HRC market in Turkey is currently lacking confidence and sustainability of demand, and so prices have softened over the past week from the earlier increases targeted by the mills. In addition, China has left the market for its holiday period, while other Asian suppliers had not been in the picture even before due to high prices. As a result, Turkish mills have stepped back a bit, but their HRC prices have not moved below the previous workable levels, partly due to there being little pressure on sales, even for April shipments. This week, domestic prices have retreated to $700-725/mt ex-works from the $710-730/mt ex-works targets. Some buyers expect $690/mt ex-works also to be reachable for sizeable orders. Regarding exports, HRC prices from Turkey have also rolled back, from $695-710/mt FOB to $680-700/mt FOB, with some small deals closed within this range to Greece and the UK. In the import segment, China’s offers have remained rather indicative and have softened by $5-10/mt over the past week to $595-605/mt CFR for end-of-March shipments.
In the GCC, buyers who need to stock up have remained favorable to goods from China and India. As a result, China sold 13,000 mt of SS400 to Oman last week for $620/mt CFR. While the majority of Chinese suppliers' offers for SS400 remain unchanged at $590-600/mt CFR, offers for SAE1006 have been reported at $610-620/mt CFR, down from $620/mt CFR in the previous week. Qatari purchasers bought certain lots from India at $620/mt FOB, which is equivalent to around $645/mt CFR. Meanwhile, offers from Indian suppliers this week have remained stable at around $635-645/mt CFR. In addition, South Korean suppliers have also been active in the market, but no deals or signs of interest from the GCC have been received. In light of this, South Korea's offers have remained unchanged at $670/mt CFR, which is higher than other current import offers.