Global View on HRC: Mood weakens in most regions, only China shows some positive signs

Friday, 24 May 2024 15:19:57 (GMT+3)   |   Istanbul
       

While most HRC markets globally, including those in Asia, Turkey and the Middle East, have been rather quiet in terms of sales and purchases this week, with domestic and export pricing remaining rather weak, some optimism has only been seen in China with the recovery of HRC futures prices. However, even though ex-China HRC offers have increased in the main trade destinations, there has been no significant support for a further uptrend so far. The mood in the European HRC market has remained rather pessimistic, affected by the continuing slowness of demand and, although most mills have kept their official offers stable at high levels, the gap with actual tradable prices has been at around €30/mt, both in Italy and northern Europe.

Chinese HRC exporters have been more optimistic with prices higher even though most major buyers keep resisting price hikes amid the slow demand globally. Specifically, official domestic offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from big Chinese mills have settled at $540-560/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $550/mt FOB, up by $7.5/mt week on week, which means the prices have rolled back to the levels heard two weeks ago, since mills are now feeling less pressure from the market. The main reason is the rebound in HRC futures prices following the announcement of anticipated stimulus measures in China, particularly for the strengthening of the Chinese domestic property market. Meanwhile, by the end of the week, the tradable prices for SS400 HRC have settled at $535-545/mt FOB, against $530-545/mt FOB at the beginning of the week and up by $15/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-China Q235/SS400 offers to Vietnam at around $545-550/mt CFR, versus $540-545/mt CFR at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile,  domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 3,920-4,000/mt ($541-552/mt) ex-warehouse on May 24, with the average price level RMB 20/mt ($2.8/mt) higher compared to that recorded on May 17, according to SteelOrbis’ data.

Ex-India HRC prices have been kept stable at $550-600/mt FOB, depending on the destination, while large mills have continued to hold back from concluding deals focusing instead on domestic sales which have offered better realizations than export sales. According to sources, this week ex-India HRC in Vietnam has been offered at around $580-585/mt CFR, while Indian offers to Europe have been heard at around $655/mt CFR. Meanwhile, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in the Middle East have been assessed at $590-610/mt CFR, against $600-620/mt CFR at the beginning of this week. According to sources, sentiment has been worsening in the local market in India since during the monsoon period the construction sector slows down, resulting  in lower demand for rebar and other products, including HRC, and so local steel prices are likely to decrease next month, putting pressure on export prices as well.

In Vietnam, although import prices for HRC have moved up slightly over the past week given the better mood in China amid the recovery of HRC futures prices, local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel has decided to decrease its prices to attract domestic customers given the extremely slow demand in Vietnam. More specifically, ex-China Q235/SS400 offers in Vietnam which were voiced at around $540-545/mt CFR at the beginning of the week, by the end of the week have increased to $545-550/mt CFR. Meanwhile, the SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has moved to $560/mt CFR, against $555/mt CFR last week, though no trade activity has been reported so far. In the meantime, this week local producer FHS has lowered its offers by around $15/mt to $580-590/mt CIF Vietnam ports for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 and to $585-595/mt CIF for skin-passed SAE1006 HRC. Thus, its offer prices have rolled back to last month’s levels.

In Europe, although most mills have kept their official offers stable at €660/mt ex-works in anticipation of long-term contracts with the automotive sector for the second half of the year, tradable prices do not exceed €640/mt ex-works for July delivery, both in Italy and northern Europe. According to sources, it will be hard for mills to go higher as demand shows no signs of improvement, while service centres and distributors are struggling to increase their downstream prices. Besides, although more restocking is expected in the second half of June, most sources doubt people will book big volumes. Meanwhile, most offers for import HRC from Asia via traders have remained at €600-620/mt CFR, the same as last week. However, offers for ex-Vietnam HRC have been heard at €620-625/mt CFR southern Europe through traders, up by €10-20/mt week on week. Besides, following several deals signed at €620/mt CFR Spain earlier this week, suppliers from Japan have stopped offering. At the same time, according to sources, suppliers from Taiwan have made attempts to increase their offers to $665-675/mt CFR, up by $10-15/mt week on week, which translates to around €613-618/mt CFR, though these offers are considered “too high for the market”.

The Turkish HRC market has been rather quiet in terms of sales and purchases this week, while domestic and export prices have remained rather weak. In the domestic market, mills are offering at $620-625/mt ex-works, down slightly over the past week. There have been rumors about a sale at $600-605/mt ex-works for a decent tonnage. As regards exports, some mills are trying to increase prices to above $600/mt FOB, while buyers assume the workable level is still closer to $580-585/mt FOB. In the import segment, ex-China HRC offers have increased from $570-572/mt CFR to $577-585/mt CFR, for early July shipments. Some sources have reported sales at $575/mt CFR, but a majority of market players believe most buyers are not in a position to make purchases. In fact, some re-rollers have placed bids at $555/mt CFR.

In the UAE, although local demand remains weak, some trade activity has been seen and Emirati buyers needing to stock up have been choosing Japanese material. As a result, Japanese suppliers have sold around 10,000 mt of HRC this week to the UAE for June shipment at $580-590/mt CFR. Meanwhile, recent offers from Japan to the UAE have settled at $590-595/mt CFR. Chinese suppliers, on the other hand, have decided to increase SS400 prices in response to good sentiments locally, with offers rising by $5/mt to $580-590/mt CFR for August shipment. Furthermore, Indian suppliers have offered HRC to the UAE this week at $600-620/mt CFR, though some other Indian suppliers have offered at a lower level at $590/mt CFR, according to sources.


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