A certain optimism has continued to be observed in the market mood and as regards price trends for hot rolled coil (HRC) in Asia, providing support for other regions globally. The overall market situation in Asia has become more positive with prices from Chinese mills and traders rising, while Indian sellers have resumed export offers, hiking them to some extent after a long break from sales overseas. At the same time, both Indian and Turkish exporters have succeeded in signing new deals at higher levels in Europe this week, where local mills have kept targeting more hikes for February delivery HRC up to €700/mt ex-works, even though most market insiders doubt the sustainability of the uptrend.
Chinese HRC mills, who increased their offer prices last week, have this week been mostly trying to maintain their offers at unchanged levels. However, the continuous recovery of HRC local and futures prices have kept providing support for the market mood, and, consequently, by the end of the week export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have settled at $565-575/mt FOB, for January shipment, with a midpoint at $570/mt FOB, against $562.5/mt FOB at the beginning of the week. Smaller mills and some big traders have increased their offers as well to €550-560/mt FOB, compared to €545-550/mt FOB at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, the tradable level for SS400 HRC has been estimated at €540-550/mt FOB, versus $535-550/mt FOB at the end of last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to ex-China offers at €553-560/mt CFR, while offers for Q195 HRC have been heard at $550/mt CFR. Furthermore, suppliers from Pakistan have reported ex-China SS400 HRC offers at around $580/mt CFR and above, against $560/mt CFR last week, for December-January shipment.
After a long two-month pause in sales, some Indian mills have resumed export offers, though HRC export trade from India has remained weak in the face of cheaper alternatives from China and other Asian countries available to buyers. Ex-India HRC prices are reported at $590-640/mt FOB, against $590-620/mt last week, with the higher end of the range corresponding to offers in Europe and, consequently, deal prices. In particular, ex-India HRC bookings for 20,000 mt were concluded by the mills in several lots and details of each deal were not readily available. The average price worked out to around $685-690/mt CFR Antwerp, which translated to around €639-644/mt CFR. ($1 = €0.93). Meanwhile, customers in southern Europe, Spain in particular, have reported ex-India HRC offers at €640/mt CFR as well, though, according to some sources, some Indian suppliers are actually ready to lower their offers to $670/mt CFR or €625/mt CFR, but this level is also high for buyers so far. Meanwhile, according to sources, although it is still early to predict a revival of India exports, there are positive signals emerging from the EU region and Indian mills can be expected to resume regular exports to Europe once new tariff quotas kick in the New Year.
In Vietnam, local producer steel producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) announced new local prices for HRC for shipment in January, at $590-608/mt CIF, depending on the grade of the material, hiking them by $40/mt on average since the end of October as bullishness has been mounting in Vietnam’s HRC import market, though prices for HRC from Formosa are higher than Chinese prices so far. At the beginning of the week, offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC were voiced at $570-580/mt CFR, up by $5/mt week on week, though by the end of the week several deals for around 20,000-30,000 mt have been reported at $575-580/mt CFR, increasing the reference price to the abovementioned level, against $570-575/mt CFR at the beginning of the week. Besides, new offers have been estimated at $580/mt CFR and above. Several deals for Q195 HRC for at least 5,000 mt in total have been reported at $540-544/mt CFR, the same as last week, but by the end of the week most ex-China Q195 and SS400 HRC offers have been heard at $550/mt CFR and $560/mt CFR respectively.
Sentiment has improved slightly in recent weeks in the EU hot rolled coil (HRC) market, while the range of domestic offer prices has remained mainly unchanged, with only slight increases seen in several transactions. Offers from mills have remained at €650-680/mt ex-works, with the lower end of the range corresponding to prices from Italian mills, while the higher end corresponds to offers in the north. The tradable price level is still estimated by most distributors at around €645/mt ex-works in northern Europe, the same as last week, though a few transactions have already been reported at €650-660/mt ex-works. Furthermore, workable prices in Italy have been heard at a minimum of €630-635/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt week on week. At the same time, more and more talk has been circulating in the market this week about a further increase in local HRC prices in late December and the beginning of the first quarter of 2024, to up to €700/mt ex-works. As for the import segment, foreign HRC suppliers have continued to test the market with higher offers at €615-645/mt CFR, up by €5-25/mt week on week, which has resulted in a number of deals for ex-Turkey and ex-India materials in particular, given their shorter lead times as compared to other Asian suppliers.
Turkey’s HRC market has strengthened this week with the support of some sales in the domestic and export markets, and also supported by scrap prices which are still firm. Domestic offer prices are at $650-670/mt ex-works, but the workable levels have climbed to $640-650/mt ex-works for medium lots, up from around $610-630/mt ex-works earlier in November. As regards exports, there have been sales mainly to Europe for a total of at least 40,000-50,000 mt from $610-620/mt FOB to $625-640/mt FOB, in addition to a couple of small deals to Egypt at around $628-630/mt FOB. The livelier exports are certainly a positive market development, although players admit that demand is still insufficient to push prices up further. In the import segment, China was offering at $580-585/mt CFR earlier this week, with the possibility to book at $575/mt CFR. By the end of the week, offers have increased to $590-595/mt CFR, for December-January shipments.
In the UAE, due to insufficient demand, Emirati buyers remain slow to buy, while Omani purchasers have decided to purchase some lots from China. Even though China gradually raised its hot rolled coil (HRC) offers to the GCC, it has remained one of the most active and consistent export suppliers to the region. According to sources, China sold 10,000 mt of SS400 at $580-585/mt CFR for January shipment to Oman. However, current offers to the GCC have jumped to $590-595/mt CFR. Despite being aware of China's improving market trend, buyers in the GCC continue to expect reductions and are attempting to get deals at $585/mt CFR. In addition, ex-China offers for grade SAE1006 have gone up to $590-595/mt CFR to the UAE. Meanwhile, other suppliers, such as India and South Korea, have chosen to remain mute on offers and focus on their local market or remain more active in other markets.