Global View on HRC: Suppliers still keep prices stable, market evaluations mainly remain optimistic

Friday, 26 January 2024 16:41:06 (GMT+3)   |   Istanbul
       

Most global hot rolled coil (HRC) suppliers have kept their offers stable this week, while the HRC markets globally have remained positive rather than negative, with most sellers anticipating a further price rise in the next round of sales. In Asia, while the Chinese market has continued to witness fluctuations, Indian suppliers have kept trying to push for sales to the main trade destinations, and consequently have succeeded in signing new deals to the Middle East this week, while maintaining their offers stable at high levels. In Europe, the tradable level has been at relatively unchanged, while mills have remained bullish trying to increase their offers for April delivery materials. The HRC market in Turkey has remained stable as well, despite the persisting uncertainty surrounding business activities.

At the beginning of the week, ex-China HRC offers from both big and small mills, as well as from traders, indicated a slight downward correction from the previous week, though some rebound in traders’ offers has been reported by the end of the week on the back of the recovery of futures prices in China. In particular, export offers for boron-added SS400 from most large Chinese mills have settled at $580-590/mt FOB, for March shipment mainly, with the midpoint at $585/mt FOB, down by $7.5/mt over the past week. According to sources, although official offers from some mills are still voiced at $600/mt FOB, nobody takes this level seriously. Meanwhile, while at the beginning of the week, offers for ex-China SS400 HRC from smaller mills and traders were heard at $550-560/mt FOB, by the end of the week the tradable prices have rolled back to last week’s levels of $560-565/mt FOB amid the recovery of HRC futures prices in China. At the same time, domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 4,100-4,280/mt ($578-604/mt) ex-warehouse on January 26, with the average price level RMB 25/mt ($3.5/mt) higher compared to that recorded on January 19, but RMB 10/mt ($1.4/mt) lower as compared to Thursday, January 25, according to SteelOrbis’ data.

In India, HRC suppliers have been more active in exports over the past week, pushing for sales to the main trade destinations, while sentiments in the local HRC market have remained rather negative. Meanwhile, in terms of prices, ex-India HRC offers have continued to show wide variations as sellers have been adopting a dual pricing strategy to cope with tight competition with Chinese sellers in Asia and the Middle East, while maintaining higher price levels for sales in Europe. Ex-India HRC offer prices from mills have settled at $605-650/mt FOB, against $605-675/mt FOB last week. According to sources, higher offers at around $670-675/mt FOB have still been voiced by Indian sellers in Europe, but these levels have been offered mainly by traders. However, no new deals have been reported for ex-India HRC this week, as customers have been cautious due to safeguard quota issue. Nevertheless, more deals have been voiced in the Middle East, with around 8,000-10,000 mt reported to have been signed by an Indian mill at $630-635/mt CFR UAE for February shipment, which translates to around $600-605/mt FOB. However, according to sources, new offers from Indian sellers have been voiced at $640-645/mt CFR for March shipment.

In Vietnam, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has settled at $600/mt CFR, versus $600-605/mt CFR, since, although foreign suppliers have been offering at unchanged high levels and some Chinese sellers are even becoming more bullish emphasizing stronger HRC futures prices, most Vietnamese customers have kept targeting additional discounts. Specifically, while offers for SAE1006 HRC have been maintained unchanged at high levels of $605-610/mt CFR from mills, most Vietnamese buyers’ ideas for SAE1006 HRC have been below the $600/mt CFR level. Meanwhile, ex-China offers for Q195 and SS400 HRC have been fluctuating this week, with most offers at $570-575/mt CFR by the end of the week, versus $565-570/mt CFR at the beginning of the week and returning to the levels seen at the end of last week. According to sources, several deals for small quantities have been done this week, but for mainly Q235 HRC at above $565/mt CFR for March shipment, against deals at $562-563/mt CFR last week. Offers for ex-India SAE1006 HRC have been voiced at $625/mt CFR, against $625-635/mt CFR last week, while a few offers have also been heard at $615/mt CFR, with no new deals reported so far though.

In Europe, while several big mills in northern Europe have continued to voice their target price for HRC at €800/mt ex-works, with no buyers accepting this level so far, other producers have been offering their materials for March-April deliveries at around €760-770/mt ex-works, though the tradable level has been estimated at €740-750/mt ex-works, the same as last week. At the same time, offers from major Italian mills have been voiced at €760/mt ex-works, up by €5-10/mt over the past week, while most buyers have been reporting occasional transactions at €735-745/mt ex-works, against €735/mt ex-works last week. Meanwhile, import HRC prices have mainly moved sideways this week, with only occasional deals reported in the market given the insurance issues for materials coming via the Red Sea coupled with the risks related to the “other countries” safeguard quota. A few deals have been reported this week, for ex-Turkey HRC in particular. However, one deals signed at around $685-690/mt FOB, which translates to about $770/mt CFR or €707/mt CFR including duty, has been described as “an old one, signed around two weeks ago”, while actual new deal prices have been estimated at above €710/mt CFR this week. In addition, offers for ex-Asia HRC for March-April shipments have been voiced at €665-680/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers from Vietnam and Taiwan. Offers for ex-Egypt HRC have been voiced at $740/mt CFR or €680/mt CFR southern Europe this week.

Trade in Turkey’s HRC market has remained moderate this week while prices have not shown much movement. In the import segment, ex-China offers have continued to fluctuate within a narrow range and this week Q195 HRC of 3 mm and higher has been available at $600-605/mt CFR for March shipment, versus $595-610/mt CFR earlier. No fresh deals have been reported since a lot of restocking had been done previously, but a few transactions are still expected. Aside from China, India is offering at $645-655/mt CFR, down $5/mt over the past week. In the local market in Turkey, HRC price levels are still at around $700-720/mt ex-works for March deliveries, while some mills have already starting voicing $730/mt ex-works for April material. Relatively active export sales in the last two to three weeks from Turkey have supported Turkish producers in their stance to keep prices relatively stable. The latest export offers for ex-Turkey HRC are at $690-700/mt FOB and at least 25,000 mt have been sold lately at the upper end of the range.

In the UAE, trade activities have continued as demand in the local market has progressively improved, with an optimistic prognosis for the coming weeks. As a consequence, Emirati purchasers have bought 8,000 mt of SS400 HRC from China during the past week at $588/mt CFR, while offers for SS400 from China have settled at $590-600/mt CFR, down from $600-620/mt CFR the week before. In contrast, ex-Chinese SAE1006 HRC prices have remained stable at $620/mt CFR, with some lots sold at roughly $615/mt CFR for shipment in late February. In addition, Chinese suppliers have recently sold around 8,000 mt of cold rolled full hard steel (CRFH) to the UAE at $620/mt CFR. Meanwhile, Indian suppliers have sold 8,000-10,000 mt of HRC to the UAE at $630-635/mt CFR in the past week, and around 20,000 mt of HRC to Bahrain at $605/mt FOB, which translates to $635/mt CFR. Although earlier deals and offers from Indian suppliers were at around $625-635/mt CFR for February shipment, Indian mills' new offers for March shipment have risen to $640-645/mt CFR. On the other hand, South Korea is still not offering to the UAE due to the higher prices and better demand observed in its own domestic market and other export markets.


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