India issued its adjustment policy on imports and exports of steel and raw materials on May 22, cutting the import duty on coking coal and coke from 2.5 percent and 5.0 percent to zero, while adjusting the export duty on major finished steel products like hot rolled coil (width>=600 mm), cold rolled coil and hot dip galvanized (HDG) from zero to 15 percent. These changes in the tax regime will seriously affect mills’ profitability, lead to a further drop in local prices in India and will provide certain opportunities for Chinese and other Asian steel suppliers.
Short-term expectations
Most market sources, questioned by SteelOrbis, said that Indian mills will continue to fulfill their obligations on already-signed contracts for shipments in May-July. “They [already signed contracts] will be executed, I am sure about it. Sellers will still take the 15 percent hit,” a large international trader said.
“They [Indian flat steel exporters] would probably absorb this additional amount once and not let customers pay. It is painful, yes, for exporters, but this move was aimed towards the domestic market,” an importer of ex-India material said.
But for future contracts, Indian mills will have to be careful, watching developments in the local flat steel market, which is witnessing slow demand right now and is expected to fall further, and will likely focus on export destinations with only higher prices. The main market in the last fiscal year for India was Europe (2.4 million mt of finished steel), the second place was taken by Vietnam with 1.7 million mt, and the third was the UAE (1.4 million mt from India).
Impact on European market
In the European market, the new measures introduced in India are under close watch, taking into account that India is one of the two most regular HRC sellers to the region, along with Turkey. Aside from the issues to be handled with the already booked and not yet customs-cleared materials from India, the buyers will be evaluating India’s future positions in the market. In theory, India is expected to lose some of its flexibility in terms of becoming aggressive in some periods in order to sell off some excessive allocation. Most market players expect that, in the case of offers and sales from India, the 15 percent duty will be assumed by sellers and so will decrease their margins. Turkey may get wider opportunities in sales to Europe, but the country itself is restricted by a different kind of trade measure - 4.8-7.6 percent antidumping duty. If India remains present in the European market in lower volumes, the gap may also be filled by other Asian exporters - Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and China. However, these sellers will also be evaluating their options in other outlets, including Asian markets, where India’s export tax will also have an impact. Overall, a lot will depend on the HRC price situation and the market trend. According to sources, for now India may still be considering the European prices workable even counting the export tax.
On Friday, May 20, the market level for imported HRC in South Europe was €890-900/mt CFR, based on the most competitive offers from Asia, India included. Market sources are expecting a further decline this week. Despite the unexpected announcement of export duties in India, the bearish sentiments have not changed in Europe as prices have been too high and demand is not sufficient. That level corresponds to $930/mt CFR, being at least $100/mt higher than the latest price voiced by India to Turkey.
China likely to take India’s share in Asia and Middle East
India’s steel exports are likely to decline in other major markets like the Middle East (the UAE), Turkey, and Southeast Asia, which will exert a positive impact on China’s steel exports amid alternative opportunities, especially for flat steel. This will ease the market pressure on China's steel industry as the local market is still feeling reduced demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“It is a world market, whether there is a duty or not. We saw the same thing with the Russians. It had little to no effect on international pricing, so it would mean that the Indian suppliers have to eat this duty”, a market source commented. So, depending on the costs, Indian mills will either continue to sell to the export market in lower volumes or will cut production, according to sources.
“Indian mills might just export two percent to the Gulf in terms of volume,” a source from the UAE said. Late last week, offers for re-rolling HRC from India were at $870-880/mt CFR UAE.
In Turkey, the easiest way to substitute India in the HRC market is China. The last offer from China for Q195 HRC was $830/mt CFR, while India was asking for $850/mt CFR last week.
Some market sources said that alloy steel flat steel from India is not subject to the new duty and could be exported, the same as China did previously. China is still selling mainly boron-added coils. But in terms of quality, these materials are used outside of Europe.