US flat rolled steel prices have continued to maintain their downtrend.
Current HRC prices are down by another $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) since our last report a week ago and are now being heard at roughly $41-$43cwt. ($903-$948/mt or $820-$860/mt) FOB mill.
CRC and HDG prices, on the other hand, have ticked down by a larger margin in the past seven days, which is likely a result of pricing for these products holding stable one week ago. Both products have softened by an average of $4.50 cwt. ($99/mt or $90/nt) since last Friday, with the new approximate transaction range for these products now being heard at $54-$56 cwt. ($1,191-$1,235/mt or $1,080-$1,120/nt), FOB mill.
At current, galvanized steel appears to be the softest product.
Deals below these ranges for all three products have been reported in the marketplace. Similar to last week, lead times for HRC are as short as 3 weeks for HRC, and as short as 5-6 weeks for CRC and HDG coil, depending on the mill of origin.
It’s our stance that HRC will continue to soften until it bottoms at +/- $38 cwt.
“Imported hot rolled offers [are coming in at slightly higher than $35 cwt. ($838/mt or $700/nt)], so having domestic settle in the [$37.50-40.00 cwt. ($826-$827/mt or $750-$800/nt) FOB mill] range is not out of the question,” one source said. “Usually the market [over-corrects], so perhaps something a bit lower is possible. As quickly as prices are dropping, we could well see a bottom by the end of March.”
Sources in the Galvanized market also believe that additional downticks are possible. One source indicated they believe that HDG prices could settle at $50-$52 cwt. ($1,102-$1,146/mt or $1,000-$1,040/nt), FOB mill.
Additionally, scrap market sources in all regions of the US predict that prime grade scrap prices are all-but-certain to drop by as much as $40/gt during the March buy cycle. It’s also believed that mills’ strong push to take scrap down again this month indicates that mills believe that the weeks-long downtrend for flat rolled steel products has yet to reach its end.