Spot market prices for US domestic hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized coil have continued to firm since our last report two weeks ago.
Current HRC prices have risen to an average spot market price transaction range of $48-$51 cwt. ($1,058-$1,124/mt or $960-$1,020/nt), FOB mill, whereas HDG and CRC prices have risen to an average transaction range of $59-$61 cwt. ($1,301-$1,345/mt or $1,180-$1,220/nt), FOB mill.
And while current HRC prices are up by more than 50 percent from since late-September, domestic steel mills appear to be pushing to get prices up even higher. This is evidenced by a price increase letter sent out by Nucor on Monday of this week, indicating the mill would be raising HRC spot market prices, immediately for all new orders, to $55 cwt. ($1,213/mt or $1,100/nt) FOB mill.
Some have speculated that it’s only a matter of time before mills attempt to push for $60 cwt. ($1,323/mt or $1,200/nt) HRC base pricing.
“I’ve heard that the mills want to push the index back up to $60/cwt., but who knows these days,” a source said. “I do think the higher numbers are with us into next year before things will likely start slowing down again mid/late 1Q24.”
Higher prices are likely to be around until later in the first quarter, he continued, which is when imported steel is expected to start to arrive in larger quantities. “I suspect customers will become cautious again with anything bought for delivery beyond March/April,” he said.
Others agree that while higher prices are likely to be around for the short-term and that current market prices are not aligned with true market demand.
“I certainly think the pricing is artificially inflated and will have to crumble back,” he said. “But when [that will start to happen], and how much [of a correction the market will endure], I really am out of speculations.”