Last week, US flat rolled steel sources from throughout the US said they believed the market was at or near the bottom, this week, it appears as if those predictions were correct.
US HRC prices are up by about $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) in the past seven days and are now trending at approximately $37.50-$39.50 cwt. ($827-$871/mt or $750-$790/nt), FOB mill, although smaller-sized transactions at approximately $41 cwt. ($904/mt or $820/nt) have been heard within the marketplace.
HDG and CRC prices, on the other hand, are still being heard at roughly $51-$54 cwt. ($1,124-$1,191/mt or $1,020-$1,080/nt), FOB mill, although similar to last week, deals below $50 cwt. ($1,102/mt or $1,000/nt), have been heard for volume buyers.
Lead times for HRC are still trending at 4-5 weeks, whereas lead times for HDG and CRC are being heard at 7-8 weeks.
In terms of this week’s price increase announcement from Cleveland Cliffs, which indicated the mill wants to raise HRC base pricing to $45 cwt. ($992/mt or $900/nt), sources agree that this “might be one of those situations where mills announce a second increase to force the first one into acceptance.”
(In mid-March, Cliff’s announced a new minimum HRC base price of $42 cwt. ($926/mt or $840/nt), FOB mill. That full increase has not yet been reached.)
Sources also predict that the market is unlikely to experience any notable swings in the next few weeks, and that prices are “more likely to finally have some stability to it,” than they are to jump upward.
“I think we’ll have a greater sense of what to expect once scrap settles next month,” a final source said.
The US scrap trade is expected to kick off by the middle part of next week. Sources in that arena have said they too, believe prices in that segment are likely to remain sideways during the upcoming buy cycle.