After a relatively silent week, there have been rumours of ex-US and ex-EU scrap deals circulating in Turkey’s import scrap market today, February 15. While the information surfacing in the market has been denied by one of the parties, the prices voiced did not surprise market players.
According to the rumours that have already been denied, ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices were at $415/mt CFR and ex-EU HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices have declined to $412/mt CFR. Due to the unwillingness of Turkish mills to conclude purchases this week, sentiment was already negative in Turkey’s import scrap market. While market sources report that there are still several ex-US cargoes available in the market, European scrap sellers are mostly keeping away. In the meantime, some European sellers have preferred to sell their cargoes to Egypt, SteelOrbis has heard. A German scrap sub-collector reported that export yards’ bids have also moved down to €340-345/mt DAP, adding, “Despite the decrease in prices, it is clearly seen that scrap availability is very low. All players in the market are struggling to secure tonnages, including us.” A European scrap supplier said deep sea scrap prices may move down further but there will be a recovery in prices after stressed cargoes are sold. Meanwhile, several Turkish mills pointed to their already high-priced inventory levels, adding that it is not in their favour to push prices down significantly since such a drop would also impact their finished steel sales prices. Having said that, a $5/mt downward movement would not be considered significant. The price levels voiced in the deals today mean only a $3-4.5/mt decline in deep sea prices. As a result, SteelOrbis will reduce its reference prices for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap to $415/mt CFR and $410-412/mt CFR for ex-US and ex-EU scfrap, respectively. It should also be added that some Turkish mills’ targeted prices for these regions are below these revised levels.
Meanwhile, short sea HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices have declined to around $392-395/mt CFR. The offers shared with Turkey are at around $400/mt CFR, and there is significant downward pressure on prices.
Meanwhile, regarding Turkey’s problems on the export side, according to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2024-2025/Q1 2024 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER) the EU’s imports of finished products from Turkey declined by 51 percent in the January-November period of 2023. Currently, most Turkish mills are still offering rebar at $610-620/mt FOB for late February-March shipments. Sources report a total of 25,000 mt of rebar was traded to Latin America at $600-605/mt FOB. Also, Turkey’s Kardemir had its opened its rebar sales at 635/mt ex-works, excluding VAT, selling around 10,000-11,000 mt of rebar. In the local Turkish rebar market, the official price range in the Marmara and Izmir regions has varied at $635-640/mt ex-works, with a $10/mt discount possible for serious buyers.