London-based GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, expects global iron ore production to reach 2.23 billion mt in 2020, declining by 1.2 percent year on year due to mainly weather-related disruptions, auction adjournments and mine closures amid the coronavirus pandemic, while it estimates that global iron ore consumption will decrease by 2.8 percent year on year to 2.03 billion mt in the same period, year due to the coronavirus pandemic’s effect on the market.
GlobalData expects global construction output to decrease by 2.8 percent this year amid the potential decline in investment, due to the possible cancellation or postponement of planned projects in the commercial and industrial buildings sectors. Besides, GlobalData stated that the global automotive industry consumes almost 17 percent of global iron ore supply and that slow demand in the automotive sector will lead to a decrease in iron ore demand.
Global iron ore production is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5 percent to 2.55 billion mt in the 2021-2024 period, and Australia, Brazil, Russia and India are foreseen o be the key contributors to this growth. GlobalData expects the combined iron ore production in the given countries to increase from a forecast 1.72 billion mt in 2021 to 1.93 billion mt in 2024.
On the other hand, “Only once the virus is under control can the industry rebound and global demand return. In the long term, it is expected that global iron ore consumption will grow at a CAGR of 1.3 percent over the forecast period (2021-2024), to reach 2.19 billion mt in 2024, supported by a strong demand for growth in India and China, alongside continuous development across Russia, Japan, South Korea and Brazil,” Vinneth Bajaj, senior mining analyst, said.