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9th week CIS market review: Is there a limit to the rise in ex-CIS billet and longs prices?

Wednesday, 07 March 2007 15:49:34 (GMT+3)   |  
       
During the ninth week of 2007, the CIS export markets were characterized by rising trends in regard to scrap, billets, longs and plate prices, which were supported by both tight supply and strong demand. As for the domestic market, the week ended March 4 was governed by upward trends in respect to all product types in Ukraine. Meanwhile, only the scrap market, and longs in some regional markets, showed positive trends in Russia. Scrap: Prices continue to move up due to scarce supply During the ninth week, the Black Sea region scrap market was characterized by an increasing trend as regards A3 grade scrap prices, whereas a decreasing trend was seen in ex-CIS scrap availability in the market. On the one hand, due to the continuous price increase in the world market for finished steel products, CIS exporters upped their scrap price by another $5/mt during the week ended March 4. On the other hand, due to the very strong domestic scrap consumption in Russia and Ukraine, the volumes offered for export during the period in question were very limited. The Russian domestic scrap market was governed by a price increase trend during the ninth week. Following the example of Severstal, which hiked its procurement scrap price during the eighth week, various other major steelmakers increased their procurement scrap prices by an average of Ruble 200-600/mt ($8-23) at the end of last week. However, these changes were not able to affect the existing range of Ruble 5,500-6,400/mt ($210-244). On the supply side, the tightness of scrap availability in the Russian domestic market is becoming more visible as spring approaches and as steel producers increase their production volumes. The Ukrainian domestic scrap market saw yet another rise by the amount of UAH 60/mt ($12) during the week ended March 4. The situation with scrap supplies is very difficult in Ukraine, so domestic steelmakers have to continuously increase their procurement scrap prices to sustain scrap deliveries. Long Products: Billet prices continue to increase During the last week of February, CIS billet exporters came to the market with another price increase. Thanks to very strong demand for this material in the Middle East and Gulf regions, the CIS exporters were able to increase their prices up to $520-525/mt FOB Black Sea. Moreover, the demand from the regions in question continues to be strengthened further as the good weather reestablishes itself. As for longs, during the ninth week many CIS producers came to the market with new increased price offers for April shipment. Ex-CIS structural steel went up in price by an average of $10-20/mt, while rebar were offered by at least $60/mt higher than during the previous week. The level of increase was largely dependent on the recipient country. The Russian domestic longs market was characterized by an increasing trend as regards rebar and wire rod. However, the trend for rebar had regional characteristics. Thus, if in the European part of Russia the rebar price did not change considerably during the week in question, in the Ural and Far East regions the price for rebar increased by approximately $30/mt. As for wire rod, the price level for this long product increased by an average of $15/mt over the week. During the ninth week the Ukrainian domestic longs market continued its rise. This upward trend especially affected structural steel which in the course of the week increased in price by UAH30-50/mt ($6 -10). Rebar and wire rod were affected to a lesser degree, showing an upward movement of UAH 10/mt ($2) and UAH 20/mt ($4) respectively. Flat rolled: Tightness in plate market boosts CIS export prices During the ninth week the CIS export flats market continued its stable trend, which started during the eighth week. The only exception to the rule was plate, the price for which increased by $10/mt. The plate market has been experiencing scarce supply since the beginning of February due to the downsizing of production, especially in Europe, and so last week's price rise for CIS-origin products did not come as a surprise to the market consumers. The Russian domestic flats market preserved its stability during the ninth week. The only price fluctuation in the market was seen in regard to galvanized steel, the price for which decreased by $ 10-15/mt in the Russian retail market. The Ukrainian domestic flats market, on the other hand, continued to rise during the ninth week. In the course of the week in question, HR and CR increased in price by UAH 25-30/mt ($5-6/mt) each.

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