While US plate spot prices have slipped a little further heading into the Thanksgiving weekend, , US HRC prices are trending up again and plate inventory levels are finally decreasing, which should allow mills to keep prices firm over the next month into 2010.
Most domestic plate mills continue to quote offers to customers at around $34.00 cwt. to $35.00 cwt. ($750 /mt to $772 /mt or $680 /nt to $700 /nt) FOB mill (for commercial grades -- A36, base sizes, mill plate). However, the majority of spot transaction prices declined about $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) since the first week of the month and most can currently be found within the range of $30.00 cwt. to $31.00 cwt. ($661/mt to $683/mt or $600/nt to $620/nt) FOB mill. Larger, long-term clients with significant tonnage may find it possible to negotiate a deal just under the $30.00 cwt. ($661/mt or $600/nt) benchmark.
Nevertheless, expected higher scrap and hot rolled coil prices in December, along with gradually decreasing US plate inventory levels at the service center level, should allow US plate mills to keep prices relatively firm in the interim until industry projects start getting underway by the end of the first quarter. According to the most recent Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) monthly shipment and inventory report, the average monthly overhang of plate tonnage among US service centers in October declined from 2.9 months in September to 2.8 months; this is the lowest figure since 2.7 months in July 2008, albeit July 2008 monthly inventory tonnage was nearly twice as much as October 2009, at 1.25 million nt and 654,000 nt respectively.
Another reason US plate mills should be able to keep prices firm moving forward is due to the continued lack of import pressure. Not much has changed in the atmosphere of the import plate market since as far back as late spring, as the majority of traders have very little interest in plate imports, because if their customers need product right now they can still easily pick up some cheap tonnage lying on the ground at most coastal ports, especially in the Gulf. Aside from some niche sizes here and there, import plate offers will not receive serious consideration from buyers until the excess port inventory is depleted, which will most likely take until late first quarter.
Furthermore regarding importing plate, earlier in the month, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced that due to affirmative determinations by the DOC and the US International Trade Commission in their respective sunset reviews, the antidumping (AD) order against cut-to-length (CTL) carbon steel plate from China and the suspension agreements regarding CTL carbon steel plate from Russia and Ukraine will continue for another five years.
Preliminary license data from the US Import Administration demonstrates that total import tonnage of cut-to-length plates decreased in October from September at 33,703 mt (final census data) to 32,541 mt. Canada exported the majority of plate to the US in October with 22,852 mt, while Sweden, at 2,071 mt; South Africa, at 1,498 mt; Austria, at 1,337 mt; and Germany 1,178 mt were the only offshore sources to export over 1,000 mt.