Although predictions of a shredded scrap decrease for April have been circulating since mid-March, US domestic rebar mills were nonetheless able to push through the rest of the $1.25 cwt. ($28/mt or $25/nt) transaction price increase ahead of the scrap trend reversal. Spot prices are for the most part now in the range of $34.75-$35.75 cwt. ($766-$788/mt or $695-$715/nt) ex-mill--with reports of some larger customers paying just underneath--and are bolstered by decent demand, which sources believe could work in mills' favor once scrap comes down this month. Depending on how much scrap prices actually drop, mills might be confident enough to only drop rebar transaction prices by a minimal amount-and if the scrap decrease is $20/long ton or less, mills might even go for a sideways move.
With such a large margin now between US domestic spot prices and future import offers, inquiries have certainly increased, but traders say that they don't expect a huge ramp-up in actual orders as US customers are still watching their inventory closely. This doesn't mean, however, that traders won't take advantage of the margin--Turkish rebar offers are still in the range of $29.50-$30.50 cwt. ($650-$672/mt or $590-$610/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports--and order position tons for later. Mexican rebar offers, meanwhile, are also unchanged this week in the range of $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($694-$717/mt or $630-$650/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states, although Mexican mills are reportedly trying to entice larger customers with offers underneath the range.