During the SteelOrbis Fall 2023 Conference & 89th IREPAS Meeting held in Istanbul on September 17-19, it was observed that the expectations of participants regarding the future trend of the scrap market were characterized by some variation. Turkish mills were insisting that deep sea scrap prices should be corrected downwards, while scrap suppliers were saying they had no room to cut prices.
Most of the European sub-collectors still report that HMS I/II 70:30 scrap is sold to export yards at €300-305/mt DAP, the lower end of prices is met with lower supply. The HMS I/II 80:20 scrap still changing hands at around €310s/mt DAP Belgium. The collection prices in the EU remain relatively stable with some exporters starting voice downward pressure coming out of Turkey. On the other side, some market players believe this new export duty in Russia may result in higher raw material prices. In January-July period, Turkey imported 1.053.238 mt of billet and bloom from Russia, 47 percent of the total. Turkey’s slab imports in this period from Russia were 1.044.558 mt. The position of ex-Russia scrap is significantly weaker than the other raw materials, Turkey bought 192.339 mt of scrap from Russia over January-July period.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved down by 0.8 percent week on week. The prices are now 0.54 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $367-375/mt CFR.
The UAW strike affecting auto production in the US is currently a wild card when forecasting US domestic scrap prices in October. If the strike runs longer than a few weeks, sources say busheling scrap supply will start to contract, which could lift prices unless mills take capacity offline.
SteelOrbis has learned that the current price for Mexican domestic shredded scrap is now at MXN 6,750/mt ($382/mt), compared to MXN 6,200/mt ($354/mt) last week. Additionally, HMS I/II scrap prices are being heard at MXN 5,650/mt ($320/mt), compared to MXN 5,250/mt ($300/mt) last week.
In line with initial expectations reported by SteelOrbis in its previous report, domestic scrap prices in Germany have increased in September. With Turkey’s return to the international scrap market, demand supported the already recovering domestic scrap segment in the EU. With the scrap suppliers receiving demand both from European buyers’ and Turkey, a competition is formed between the parties, pushing domestic EU scrap market up.
The positive impact of the Kanto tender in Japan has been short-lived as Vietnamese mills’ price ideas for Japanese scrap have declined over the past week. This week, bids from Vietnam for containerized HMS I/II 80:20 scrap are at $380/mt CFR Vietnam. Meanwhile, bids from Vietnamese mills for ex-Japan H2 scrap are at $380-385/mt CFR, down from the offer levels at $390/mt CFR recorded last week. SteelOrbis’ reference price for ex-Japan H2 scrap remains at JPY 51,000-52,000/mt ($344-351/mt) FOB.
Import scrap offers to Taiwan have decreased slightly over the past week. During the week, Taiwan’s rebar market resumed its silence. Over the past week, offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have remained stable at $375-380/mt CFR. Japanese scrap suppliers have started to share offers for H1/2 (50:50) scrap in bulk to Taiwan at $373-384/mt CFR.