Prices for ex-Australia premium hard coking coal have remained relatively stable this week amid a lack of deals and a still visible gap between offers and bids. In general, the outlook is still mainly negative, with stable supply, the ongoing low number of inquiries from India, and the weak expectations for China’s return putting pressure on the market mood.
Most offers for premium hard coking coal (PHCC) are in the range of $309-320/mt FOB depending on the quality and shipment details. A 40,000 mt cargo of mid-volatile PHCC has been on offer at GlobalCoal at $319/mt FOB for late March laycan, while a bid for a higher volume (75,000 mt) of the same material has been at $300/mt FOB. This signals that the market is unable to settle at a lower level, at least for now. Some market sources said that Indian buyers may accept $310-312/mt FOB, but, to avoid risks, importers in case of need are making deals based on index prices. Also, a bid for low-volatile Peak Downs PHCC has been reported at $312/mt FOB this week. Weak demand from Asia, including Japan, and negative expectations for China’s return from its holiday, will keep putting pressure on suppliers from Australia.
Also, overall supply of coking coal in the global market has been better than demand, with US sellers showing interest in sales. Premium hard coking coal Blue Creek 7 from the US has been offered at $310-315/mt CFR to India. Market sources are waiting for lower imported PHCC in China next week as well. Before the holidays, the tradable levels were at $320-325/mt CFR.
Ex-Russia PCI has been traded to India, in the absence of China, at $145-155/mt CFR, depending on the seller and quality. The last deal to China was at $142/mt CFR.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Australia PHCC has been stable at $315/mt FOB during the whole week.