While several SteellOrbis contacts commented this week that it’s “just too early to tell” about July scrap pricing, an early consensus seems to indicate a sideways trend for July domestic scrap, versus June settled values.
Sideways pricing to June would peg Ohio Valley busheling scrap at at $375/gt ($381/mt) delivered to customer location, P&S scrap at $355/gt ($361/mt) delivered, shredded at $380/gt ($386/mt) delivered to customer, and HMS#1 at $320/gt ($325/mt) delivered to customer location. As finished steel pricing faltered through May, June scrap pricing in the Ohio Valley settled overall $20-$40/gt ($20-$40/mt) less than May prices, SteelOrbis data shows.
“People are talking (about) July at the moment, but right now it’s pretty much a crap shoot,” said one Midwest scrap insider. “Whichever way July scrap goes, I don’t think its going to move much from June price levels.”
The bigger story is on the US East Coast, scrap insiders said, where June pricing was only $20-$35/gt ($20-$36/mt) less on a delivered-to-customer basis versus May, owing to solid export demand for more limited scrap inventories, contacts told SteelOrbis.
A sideways-to-June July scrap call pegs East Coast busheling at $335/gt ($341/mt) delivered, P&S is expected to come in at $320/gt ($325/mt) delivered, unchanged from June levels, while shredded and HMS#1 are expected to come in steady to June at $370/gt ($376/mt) and $290/gt (295/mt) delivered to customer, respectively.
Despite solid monthly declines across the board in US local scrap pricing, US East Coast export scrap spot prices were solidly higher this week as exporters scrambled to meet reported robust demand for July scrap from Turkey and other importing countries, scrap market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“The export market is much stronger in terms of demand than the domestic US scrap market right now,” said one SteelOrbis scrap market insider. “Turkey has a lot of demand, and the exporters know it, so their raising their prices.”
Contacts say they expect about 25 deep sea cargoes from the US and the UK to be booked by Turkey for July delivery. The total doesn’t include deliveries from Russia.
Philadelphia dock delivered P&S scrap pricing is reported at $300-$305/gt ($305-$310/mt), up from $260-$270/gt ($264-$274/mt) one week ago. The price rise for P&S scrap, represents a 15.4 percent weekly increase.
Despite rising P&S delivered dock pricing SteelOrbis contacts said East Coast delivered dock shredded grades in New York and Philadelphia, currently priced near $290/gt ($295/mt) could be “near a price bottom” as demand from exporters remains more limited.
“Many exporters have their own shredders now, so they won’t buy already shredded material because if they do, they loose out on the non-ferrous component of the scrap,” a contact said.
“The exporters are looking for the non-ferrous recovery to boost their margins,” the scrap contact added. “So, they don’t want to buy shredded scrap from other people, which is limiting the demand.”
HMS#1 New York 80:20 dock delivered scrap is discussed at $270-$290/gt ($275-$295/mt), little changed on the week. Contacts reported higher dock delivered HMS#I pricing of $290-$310/gt ($295-$315/mt) out of Camden, New Jersey.