Export scrap activity from the US to Turkey slowed substantially in late August and early September, but by the middle of this month, cargo sales started to increase. In mid-September, Turkey began snapping up cargos from the US at prices about $15/mt lower than two weeks ago. The most recent sales have been concluded at about $370/mt CFR to Turkey for HMS I/II 80:20. But sources tell SteelOrbis that Turkish mills still expect even lower prices from the US due to the drop in US domestic prices for September and weakening finished steel prices in Turkey. Further, Turkey has been forced to lower its export prices for long products to compete with China and therefore needs lower raw material prices to be competitive, according to one Midwest scrap dealer. Turkish mills are expected to remain active and continue to consistently book from the US over at least the next week during which time export prices could drop under $370/mt CFR.
But on the US West Coast, while container scrap cargo bookings to Taiwan have been far less active as compared to export activity off the East Coast, prices have trended up. About two weeks ago, ex-US West container cargos of HMS I/II were sold for about $335/mt CFR, but have now increased to around $345/mt CFR and scrap broker sources have indicated that Taiwanese mills could be willing to purchase at slightly higher prices. There's no clear reason as to why Taiwanese mills have been more inclined to pay higher prices recently but increases in iron ore prices globally could be one explanation. Nonetheless, many believe it's unlikely that the iron ore price increases will last, which could mean that the export scrap price uptrend won't have lasting power either.