Speaking at the Flat Steel Talks held online by Turkey's Association of Flat Steel Exporters and Manufacturers (YISAD) and SteelOrbis on March 30, Gökhan Demiruz, chairman of YISAD, Uğur Dalbeler, general manager of Çolakoğlu Metalurji, Hakkı Yıldız, Yıldızlar Yatırım Holding board member, Kerem Çakır, general manager of Borçelik, Kutay Kenan Ülkü, Tata international trade manager, Fatih Çıtak, Erdemir marketing and sales vice president, and Hüseyin Ocakçı, general manager of CIEC Group, have evaluated the latest situation in the flat steel market, new investments in the segment, and the effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and shared their expectations.
Gökhan Demiruz stated that in 2021 Turkey’s flat steel production was 14.6 million mt, consumption was 17.6 million mt, and imports were 8.75 million mt. Indicating that the country’s flat steel exports reached 6.35 million mt last year, Demiruz said that, in particular, coated and CRC exports have increased significantly in recent years. The YISAD chairman said he expects Turkey’s flat steel exports will increase in the coming years.
Evaluating the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the raw material market, the moderator of the meeting and SteelOrbis general manager Murat Eryılmaz stated that the two countries in question have a share of over 10 percent in Turkey’s scrap imports, and that the disruptions in the supply chain have negatively affected the market.
Regarding the Far East market, Hüseyin Ocakçı stated that, due to the absence of Ukraine and Russia from the market, the demand for Chinese flat steel has unexpectedly increased in Europe and he added that he expects China’s exports to increase as well.
Fatih Çıtak stated that it is difficult to make predictions about prices due to the uncertainty in the multi-risk environment that emerged after the pandemic. Mr. Çıtak stated that steel prices will increase from year to year due to higher energy prices.
Regarding the European market, Kutay Kenan Ülkü stated that Turkey is the largest source of flat imports by Europe. Stating that the other biggest suppliers are Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, Mr. Ülkü said that Europe will lose its important flat steel suppliers as the supplies from these countries disappear due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Kutay Ülkü estimates that the EU HRC quota for Turkey will be exhausted in one day in the new quota period that will start next week.
Stating that customers continue to purchase as their flat steel stock levels are low, Hakkı Yıldız said that Turkey has export potential, especially for Europe. Saying that local Turkish HRC producers’ main focus is on exports, Mr. Yıldız stated that producers should not ignore the needs in the domestic market.
Regarding the Turkish HRC market, Kerem Çakır stated that there is not enough local HRC supply for domestic consumption, while deliveries could not be made on time, while products purchased from China arrived earlier. On the other hand, Uğur Dalbeler said that Turkish HRC producers are not neglecting the domestic market, and that, while exports of other flat products increased in 2021, only HRC exports did not increase and were sold to the domestic market. Mr. Dalbeler said that, due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, it is not possible to make predictions for the market and stated that there will be a chaotic situation until May due to the interruption on the supply side.